| Last week gave investors a dramatic reason to cheer, then an immediate reason to worry again. A last-minute two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran triggered the best stock market rally since November, oil plunged nearly 15%, and major indexes clawed back most of their year-to-date losses. Then, over the weekend, peace talks in Pakistan collapsed. As of this writing on Monday morning, the U.S. Navy is blockading the Strait of Hormuz and oil is surging. The market we are left with is the same one we have had for weeks: headline-driven, volatile, and fully dependent on what happens next in the Middle East.
Market Snapshot — Week Ending April 10, 2026
Data sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Reuters, as of April 10, 2026 close. Brent WTD approximate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. What Drove Markets Last Week The week came down to one moment: Tuesday night, just before President Trump’s deadline to destroy Iranian infrastructure, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. In response, oil plunged and stocks had their best day in a year. Almost all of the week’s gains came in a single overnight session, with the S&P 500 finishing up 3.58% for the week and the major indexes clawing back most of their year-to-date losses.
On the inflation front, March CPI came in higher, driven almost entirely by the surge in energy costs from the war. The good news is that once you strip out energy, prices were actually a little better than expected, meaning the oil shock has not yet spread into everyday goods and services. The economy itself also held up: businesses still spent, the job market remained solid, and the services sector grew. Over the weekend, however, the peace talks in Pakistan collapsed. VP Vance flew home without a deal, Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil surged more than 8% overnight. The relief of last week has given way to the uncertainty of this one. What to Watch This Week (April 13 – 17) Two things that matter most this week are Iran and earnings. On the Iran side, the naval blockade is already pushing oil higher and any headline out of the Middle East can move markets fast in either direction. On the earnings side, Goldman Sachs kicked things off Monday, April 13, 2026, with a strong beat, and the rest of the big banks are set to announce on Wednesday. While strong results and confident guidance from the banks would certainly give investors something to feel good about beyond the daily geopolitical noise, we need to wait and see how the week plays out.
Later in the week, the Producer Price Index on Tuesday and jobless claims on Thursday will give us early signals on whether the potential run-up in oil prices is spreading into the broader economy. Netflix on Thursday may be a useful read on how the average consumer is holding up. Keep it simple: watch Iran and watch the banks. The Big Picture — What’s Really Going On Here are the three things we believe every investor should understand right now:
If you have any questions about your portfolio or what any of this means for your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative. We are here to help you navigate these markets with confidence. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Important Disclosures:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CIAS) reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As Quickly As Wall Street Regained Steam, Global Tensions Reemerge
