The market had its best week since May, 2025, and for the first time since the Iran war began, the major indexes were back in positive territory for the year. Economic data showed the economy was not only holding up, it appeared to be accelerating in some areas. And on Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping, sending oil plunging and stocks to new all-time highs. Over the weekend, however, Iran reversed course, saying the strait would remain under its control until the U.S. lifted its naval blockade. Markets were closed when that news broke, which means Monday morning is where the reaction begins. That is where we are as this newsletter goes out.
Data sources: Yahoo Finance, YCharts, CNBC, Reuters, as of April 17, 2026 close. Brent WTD approximate. Please verify all figures. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Stocks moved higher all week on optimism that the conflict may be winding down, with Friday delivering the biggest catalyst: Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial shipping. Oil plunged and the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high. It was a strong finish to a week that also brought encouraging economic data and broadly solid bank earnings.
A separate inflation report on wholesale prices also came in better than expected. More importantly, two months in a row now, the rise in prices has been driven almost entirely by higher energy costs. Strip out gas and oil, and prices across the rest of the economy have remained relatively calm. That matters because it suggests the war’s impact on inflation may still be contained, and has not yet spread into the everyday cost of goods and services. The big banks that reported earnings last week offered a similar read on the economy: consumers were still spending, loans were growing, and business activity was holding up. In short, the economy appeared to be in good shape heading into this conflict. The weekend brought a complication. Iran reversed its announcement about the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, saying it would remain under Iranian control until the U.S. lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Since markets were closed, Monday’s open is the first opportunity investors have had to respond. How that reaction plays out may set the tone for the week.
The economic calendar is relatively light this week, but the reports we do get are important because they may tell us whether higher gas prices are beginning to affect how consumers spend. The Iran ceasefire is also approaching its expiration, which means geopolitics remain the dominant backdrop.
The two most important reports this week are Retail Sales on Tuesday and the Flash PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) on Thursday. Retail Sales will give us a sense of whether consumers appear to still be spending despite higher gas prices. The headline number may look elevated simply because gas is more expensive right now, so the more revealing figure is the portion that strips out gas, autos, and building materials, which gives a cleaner read on everyday discretionary spending. The Flash PMIs on Thursday will be the first national look at April economic activity and could show whether higher energy costs are beginning to weigh on broader business conditions. On the earnings side, airline results early in the week and Tesla on Wednesday may offer a useful real-world perspective on how businesses and consumers are navigating the current environment.
Here are the three things we believe every investor should keep in mind right now:
If you have any questions about your portfolio or what any of this means for your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative. We are here to help you navigate these markets with confidence. |
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| Important Disclosures:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CIAS) reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. |
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Wall Street Has Its Best Week Since May 2025
