Equities Bounce Back And Forth While Digesting Various Data Points

Market Down and Dirty

Last Week’s Economic/Market Summary


  • U.S. equities ping-ponged while digesting various data points before ending the week slightly down.
    • S&P 500 -0.48% Dow +0.12% Russell 2000 -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.39%[1]
      • The All-Country World Index was positive +0.51%.1
    • S&P 500 sub-sectors were mixed last week.
      • Utilities & Consumer Discretionary led to the upside. 1
      • Technology led to the downside by a wide margin with a loss of -2.25%.1
    • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down -0.36% to finish at 13.79. 1
  • US Treasury bond yields rose last week.
    • US 2yr +0.04% at 5.02%, 10yr +0.07% to 4.33%, 30yr +0.09% to 4.42%.1
    • The curve bear steepened as the longer maturities rose quicker than the 2yr.
  • Commodities as an aggregate asset class were mixed last week.
    • WTI Crude gained +3.82%.1
    • Gold was declined +0.15%.1
    • The US Dollar index gained +0.31%.1
  • In our opinion, U.S. economic data continued to be mixed last week.
    • US services activity grew more than forecast in the latest data. 1
    • The consumer price index came out inline with expectations, yet still above the Fed’s target.
    • Jobless claims fell to a 7-month low as the labor market remains tight. 1
  • An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) rose +1.47%.1


  • US Equities finished the week mostly negative following a sharp Friday sell-off.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the sole positive domestic major benchmark with a slight gain of +0.12%.1
      • Tech sector weakness weighed on the S&P 500 & Nasdaq.
    • The small-cap tracking Russell 2000 continues to underperform.
      • Russell 2k data is showing weakness barely observed in the last 2 decades. 1
        • Small caps are on pace for their 2nd worst underperformance since 1998. 1
      • Historically, these stocks have led during periods of recoveries and sold off in times of stress as investors looks to them for cues on the health of the economy.
      • Since October of 2022’s lows, only 40% of Russell 2k members are trading above their 200 day moving averages. 1
        • That compares with more than 90% having crossed that threshold over the same timeframe when the market was coming out of its Covid-era lows. 1
  • Despite major equity benchmarks being negative, S&P 500 subsectors were mostly positive last week.
    • Tech led to the downside by a wide margin with a loss of over 2%.1
    • Despite oil shooting higher by almost 4%, Energy equities finished the week lower.
    • Utilities led to the upside by a wide margin with a gain of almost 3%.1
  • US Treasury yields were higher last week.
    • The yield curve bear steepened which is often observed around the end of central bank tightening policies.
    • Treasury yields have settled into a tight range this month near the highest levels in more than a decade as data shows a resilient economy and inflation still well above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week as they have their September meeting.
    • Expectations are strongly in the “no-hike” camp with only a 1% probability of a rate hike. 1
      • Investors believe the Fed will raise its forecast for growth while indicating another rate hike is on the table for later this year.
    • Additionally, the Bank of Japan will meet this week and they continue to hold a wild-card in the global economic landscape.
      • When the BOJ decreases their so-called “yield controls” and allows their gov’t bond yields to rise, spillover into all asset classes is anticipated.
      • Anticipation on when they do this is hotly debated.
  • CPI numbers for the US came in just about where everyone thought they would with inflation staying elevated. 1
    • Expectations for no recession and a soft-landing continue to be strong consensus in market participant’s positioning.
    • “The Fed has course corrected and they’re basically on course, but the plane is still well above the landing spot” was post-CPI quote by ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
    • Although we take the opinions of any individual with a grain of salt…the Fed no doubt listens to the voices of certain individuals and thus they can have an impact.

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP®,

AIF® – Chief Investment Officer

Contact: 828/855-9400
info@CIASonline.com or rmumy@bloomberg.net 

 1 Source: Bloomberg – 9/15/2023 

Disclosures: The information provided in this paper is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC makes no warranties with regard to the information or results obtained by third parties and its use and disclaim any liability arising out of or reliance on the information. This information is subject to change and, although based on information that Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC considers reliable, it is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Source information is obtained from independent financial data suppliers. For investment related terms definitions, please visit: www.investopedia.com Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Additional information about CIAS and its Form ADV Part 2A are available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov Advisory services through Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC Securities may be offered through Capital Investment Group, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC Both firms located at 100 E. Six Forks Rd. Suite 200, Raleigh, NC 27609 919-831-2370