Economic Market Summary

Market Down and Dirty

Last Week’s Economic/Market Summary


  • U.S. equities finished the week mostly higher as large-cap tech earnings surprised to the upside.
    • S&P 500 +0.90% Dow +0.86%, Russell 2000 -1.33%, Nasdaq +1.28%1
      • The All-Country World Index gained +0.33%.1
    • S&P 500 sub-sectors were extremely mixed last week.
      • Most sectors were flat to slightly positive or negative.
      • Technology led to the upside by a wide margin with a gain of over 2%.1
    • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped over 5% to end at its low of the year at 15.72. 1
  • US Treasury bond yields were slightly lower last week.
    • US 2yr -0.13% at 4.04%, 10yr -0.13% to 3.44%, 30yr -0.11% to 3.67%.1
    • After moving in tandem in ‘22, the 10yr Treasury & S&P have been negative correlated in ’23. 1
  • Commodities as an aggregate asset class moved lower last week.
    • WTI Crude declined -1.62%.1
    • Gold rose +0.32%.1
    • The US Dollar index lost -0.16%.1
  • In our opinion, U.S. economic data continued to be mixed last week.
    • 1st quarter GDP for the US came in below estimates at +1.1%.1
    • Consumer confidence fell in April to a 9-month low. 1
    • Wage growth in Q1 came in at +5.1%, well ahead of the Fed’s target. 1
  • An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) was flat last week. 1


  • US Equities finished the week higher amidst early week downside pressure.
    • Large-cap Tech earnings that beat lowered expectations helped propel indices higher.
    • The small-cap Russell 2000 continues to paint a different picture of the economy than the large-cap benchmarks as it led to the downside with a loss over 1.3%.1
    • The move higher in the indices continues to have very little breadth or participation and is concentrated mostly in the biggest technology names. 1
      • For instance: Nvidia & Microsoft today make up over 8% of the S&P 500. 1
  • Stronger-than-expected results from Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet last week may have allayed some concerns about the slowdown in demand for technology, but investor angst over the sector hasn’t completely dissipated.
    • Even with US consumer spending rising at the fastest pace in almost two years, Amazon’s warning over lackluster growth in its cloud-computing business and Cloudflare’s move to cut its full-year revenue outlook underscore the uncertainty over the broader economy. 1
  • S&P 500 subsectors were mixed last week.
    • Technology & Communication Services continue to carry the broader indices in a disproportionate manner.
    • Most sectors were little changed last week.
  • US Treasury yields declined across the curve last week.
    • Since the banking “issue”, the benchmark 10yr yield has been extremely rangebound.
    • We believe yields have traded with a little bit of “wait & see” of what transpires next.
  • All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week as their latest policy will be released Wednesday.
    • Recent economic data shows that US inflation continues to accelerate, bolstering expectations the Federal will keep raising rates and heightening the chances of a demand-sapping recession.
      • Market participants anticipate a 0.25% increase to the Fed Funds rate this week. 1
    • The Fed’s forward guidance will be in clear focus as what they say will be scrutinized heavily.
    • The Fed has consistently said that they’ll keep rates “higher for longer” while market participants are pricing in several rate cuts by the end of 2023.
      • This difference can be seen in the differing behaviors of the bond market & equities.
    • While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal.
      • At the same time, first-quarter growth figures this past week pointed to an economy that’s downshifting.
      • We believe that the monthly jobs report on Friday will give a sense of how labor demand is holding up.
  • Earnings season is well underway with 53% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings so far. 1
    • 79% of companies have beaten earnings per share expectations while 74% have reported positive revenue results. 1
    • Blended earnings have declined -3.7% so far this quarter. 1
    • Forward guidance has been extremely mixed as executive’s outlooks remain uncertain.

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP®,

AIF® – Chief Investment Officer

Contact: 828/855-9400 or 

 1 Source: Bloomberg – 4/28/2023 

Disclosures: The information provided in this paper is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC makes no warranties with regard to the information or results obtained by third parties and its use and disclaim any liability arising out of or reliance on the information. This information is subject to change and, although based on information that Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC considers reliable, it is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Source information is obtained from independent financial data suppliers. For investment related terms definitions, please visit: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Additional information about CIAS and its Form ADV Part 2A are available on the SEC’s website at Advisory services through Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC Securities may be offered through Capital Investment Group, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC Both firms located at 100 E. Six Forks Rd. Suite 200, Raleigh, NC 27609 919-831-2370