Economic Market Summary

Market Down and Dirty

Last Week’s Economic/Market Summary


  • U.S. equities fell for a 3rd straight week as economic data continued to cause caution from participants.
    • S&P 500 -0.17% Dow +0.86%, Russell 2000 -0.12%, Nasdaq -1.93%1
      • The All-Country World Index declined -0.08%.1
    • S&P 500 sub-sectors ended the week mixed.
      • Energy led to the upside with a gain of 4.4%.1
      • Consumer Discretionary & Tech led to the downside with losses over 2%.1
    • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined slightly, staying above the 20 level.
  • US Treasury bond yields moved higher last week.
    • US 2yr +0.14% at 4.31%, 10yr +0.27% to 3.75%, 30yr +0.29% to 3.82%.1
    • Yields reversed their recent trend as inflationary pressures & labor market tightness persisted.
  • Commodities as an aggregate asset class were mixed last week.
    • WTI Crude rose over 6%.1
    • Gold was down slightly.
    • The US Dollar index was lower.
  • In our opinion, U.S. economic data was mixed last week.
    • The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge came in at a 5.5% increase over the last year. 1
    • The final 3rd quarter GDP figure was revised higher. 1
    • Durable goods orders sank over 2% in November on weakening demand. 1
  • An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) gained 0.38%.1


  • US Equities were mostly lower last week as economic data continued to point market participants to continued Federal Reserve tightening.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average led major indices with gain, helped by Energy. 1
    • The tech & growth oriented areas of the market led to the downside as the Nasdaq lost 2%.
      • Reminder that higher interest rates hurt growth co’s the most as their future earnings are discounted against the risk-free rate.
    • Equities remain in a near-term consolidation pattern following the December option expiration and the large amount of short-term institutional hedging going on in the background.
      • As a result of this and holiday trading dynamics, we anticipate a very tight trading range for the next week or so.
  • S&P 500 sub-sectors were extremely mixed
    • Energy led to the upside by a wide margin on the back of crude oil shooting higher.
      • A weakening US Dollar, China reopening policy & threatened supply cuts by Russia seemed to guide black gold higher.
    • Utilities, Financials, & Consumer Staples also all rose over 1%.1
    • Consumer Discretionary & Tech led sectors lower as the growth factor came under pressure as a result of yields shooting higher last week.
  • Non-US equities moved higher last week, outperforming domestic shares.
    • China continues to loosen Covid policies.
    • The US Dollar weakening has provided a tailwind to non-US markets.
    • The Bank of Japan shocked markets by tightening their monetary policy by backing off their yield controls on their domestic bond market. 1
      • If this is the start of them backing away from their ultra-loose monetary policy, major global shifts could follow.
  • US Treasury yields shot higher last week on the back of economic data that continued to point to the Fed lifting rates further and inflation being stickier than many anticipated.
    • The longer dated maturities led the rise in yields last week and the inverted yield curve weakened slightly. 1
    • Economic data put more pressure on market participants that had been pricing in a quick pivot by the Fed. o The Fed’s preferred inflation measure came in below last month but the PCE gauge is still up 5.5% over the last 12 months. 1
      • This is a long way from the Fed’s 2% target.
    • Elevated consumer spending, wage growth, & the tight labor market will keep pressure on inflation figures.

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP®,

AIF® – Chief Investment Officer

Contact: 828/855-9400 or 

 1 Source: Bloomberg – 12/23/2022  

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