Economic Market Summary

Market Down and Dirty

Last Week’s Economic/Market Summary


  • U.S. equity indices bounced firmly off multi-year lows heading into a Federal Reserve meeting this week.
    • S&P 500 +3.97% Dow +5.72%, Russell 2000 +6.02%, Nasdaq +2.25%1
      • The All-Country World Index gained +3.34%.1 
    • S&P 500 sub-sectors ended the week mostly higher.
      • Industrials, Staples, Financials, Real Estate, & Utilities all rose over 6% to lead. 1 
      • Communications Services was the only negative sector @ -2.23%.1 
    • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sank lower by 13.27% to end at 25.75. 1 
  • US Treasury bond yields took a pause from their recent drive higher and moved lower last week.
    • US 2yr -0.06% at 4.41%, 10yr -0.19% to 4.02%, 30yr -0.15% to 4.15%.1 
    • While rates rolled over, they remain in a firm uptrend at decade high levels. 
  • Commodities as an aggregate asset class were mixed last week.
    • WTI Crude gained 3.87%.1 
    • Gold declined -0.80%.1 
    • The US Dollar index sank -1.21%.1 
  • In our opinion, U.S. economic data was mixed last week.
    • The latest inflation report in the US showed prices still rising but at a slower pace. 1 
    • 3rd quarter GDP came in at +2.6% with much of the growth from an improving trade deficit. 1 
    • Flash PMIs continued to show business contraction & the housing market continued to weaken. 1 
  • An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) gained 1.41%.1 


  • US Equities finished the week higher across the board despite multiple disappointing earnings reports from major large-cap US technology companies.
    • We believe a large bounce off of multi-year lows is to be expected. 
    • In our opinion, much of the rise last week was a result of institutional investors selling volatility and thereby causing a systematic rise to stock indices.
      • The underlying data relating to the economy & markets hasn’t changed from our perspective. 
    • The small-cap tracking Russell 2000 led to the upside with a gain of over 6%.1 
  • S&P 500 sectors finished the week mostly higher.
    • Most sectors ignored earnings and we’re helped higher by interest rates & the US Dollar taking a pause from their large moves higher throughout 2022. 
    • Communications was the only negative sector as major components such as Alphabet (google) & Meta (facebook) were punished for missing earnings. 1 
  • US Treasury yields rolled over last week after 12 straight weeks of gains.
    • The longer maturities sank more than the 2yr which strengthened the inversion of the curve. 
    • The biggest news from the rate market last week was the inversion of the 3 mo US Treasury yield vs the 10yr’s yield. 1
      • This has remained positive despite all that has transpired this year and the 3 mo yield finally surpassed that of the 10yr last week. 
      • This measure is one of the favorites of many market economists & participants to indicate a recession is likely in the US. 
  • Economic data was mixed last week as investors continue to attempt to predict when the Federal Reserve will pivot from restrictive policy and whether or not there will be a recession in the US.
    • Q3 GDP came in better then expected which gave a boost to equity bulls last week.
      • Much of the +2.6% gain was attributed to the narrowing trade deficit while the underlying data continued to indicate a slowing economy. 1 
    • Consumer Confidence fell to a 3-month low. 1 
    • New home sales plunged 11% in September while Pending Sales sank 10%+.1 
  • Earnings season is coming to a close with 52% of S&P 500 companies having reported. 1
    • 71% have reported positive earnings results & 68% have beaten revenue expectations. 1 
    • The current earnings growth rate is at 2.2% for the S&P 500. 1 
    • Forward guidance has been mixed and full of cautious outlooks from company execs. 
  • All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and economic data this week.
    • While the Fed is fully expected to hike rates by another 0.75% more interest is in Chair Powell’s commentary and specifically how he might lay the groundwork for an eventual pivot by the Fed. 
    • Several measures of the labor market will also be released this week along with PMI data. 
    • We continue to encourage patience with volatility remaining prevalent in the stock & bond markets as the future economic picture remains extremely hazy. 

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP®,

AIF® – Chief Investment Officer

Contact: 828/855-9400 or 

 1 Source: Bloomberg – 10/28/2022  

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