Economic Market Summary

Market Down and Dirty

Last Week’s Economic/Market Summary

 Data 

  • U.S. equity indices exploded higher last week.
    • S&P 500 +6.58% Dow +6.84%, Russell 2000 +6.57%, Nasdaq +6.24%1 
      • The All-Country World Index rose +4.98%.1
    • S&P 500 sub-sectors were all higher last week. 
      • Consumer Discretionary led with a gain of 9.51%.1 
      • Healthcare was the weakest performer with a gain of 3.27%.1 
    • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was lower by 12% to end at 25. 1 
  • US Treasury bond yields were lower last week across the curve. 
    • US 2yr -0.13% at 2.47%, 10yr -0.04% to 2.74%, 30yr -0.02% to 2.97%.1 
    • Treasuries are heading for their 1st monthly gain since November. 1 
  • Commodities as an aggregate asset class were higher last week. 
    • WTI Crude rose 2%. 1 
    • Gold gained 0.34%.1 
    • The US Dollar index declined 1.47%.1 
  • In our opinion, U.S. economic data was mixed last week. 
    • The PCE measure of inflation came in at 4.9%, lower than last month. 1 
    • Q1 US GDP was revised lower to -1.5%.1 
    • The Personal Savings Rate fell to -4.4%, the lowest since 2008. 1 
  • An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) gained +3.27%.1

Conclusion 

  • Equity markets bounced back last week as some encouraging inflation data seemed to offset concerns that have led to 2022 being one of the worst starts to stock market performance in decades. 
    • Less-hawkish remarks from Fed officials, a resilient American consumer, and upbeat corporate earnings offered investors a ray of hope that sent the S&P 500 climbing, snapping its longest weekly losing streak since 2001. 
    • The S&P 500 ended the week higher by over 6.5%, yet is still down almost 13% YTD. 1 
      • The S&P’s start is it’s worst since 1970 has been fueled by recession fears as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive tightening cycle since 2000. 1 
    • While rising interest rates have dented the allure of technology & growth shares, the Nasdaq gained 6.24% last week. 1 
      • While the historic rout in tech shares is easing somewhat, the Nasdaq 100’s dive from its November peak briefly eclipsed its pandemic selloff in March 2020. 
      • Its nearly 30% drop was its worst since the gauge tumbled more than 50% at the height of the global financial crisis. 1 
      • After Friday’s rally, the index is 23% below its Nov. 19 closing record. 1 
  • S&P 500 subsectors were all higher last week. 
    • Consumer Discretionary led to the upside followed by Energy & Financials. 
    • With it’s 8.27% gain last week, the Energy sector is now up almost 60% year-to-date. 1 
      • Utilities is the only other sector with a positive ’22 gain at +5.21%.1 
  • The US Treasury market yields comes down across maturities. 
    • The benchmark 10yr US yield has dropped to 2.74% from it’s high of 3.20% in early May.1 
      • We believe this is a result of concerns that the Fed’s interest rate increases could puncture global growth & possibly lead to recession. 
    • The largest investment grade corporate bond ETF is still down north of 12% in ’22.1
  • The VIX volatility index ended the week at 25.72, losing 12% from the previous week. 1 
    • Highly interesting to note that the S&P 500 was able to make new lows without the VIX “blowing out” as we have seen in most bottoms over history. 
    • Despite the VIX staying relatively tamed, investors have been whiplashed at a pace that hasn’t been seen since 2008. 
      • The S&P 500 has moved in a daily range of at least 1% in 89% of trading sessions in ’22.1 
  • Non-US Equities moved higher last week as the US Dollar weakened notably. 
    • The US Dollar index has dropped nearly 3% in the past two trading weeks.1 
    • This followed a massive gain so far in the year for the dollar. 
      • Even after the last 2 weeks, it remains up over 5% in 2022.1 
  • Chinese authorities are loosening up their Covid restrictions that were choking the economy. 
    • With China’s economy having weakened substantially, the nation’s leaders seem to be becoming increasingly concerned over the country’s economic outlook. 
    • We believe all eyes will be on if/when China makes a notable pivot towards more stimulus.

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP®,
AIF® – Chief Investment Officer

Contact: 828/855-9400
info@CIASonline.com or rmumy@bloomberg.net 

 1 Source: Bloomberg – 5/27/2022  

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