Market Down and Dirty
Last Week’s Economic/Market Summary
Data
- U.S. equity indices were lower last week as various uncertainties weighed on investors.
- S&P 500 -1.27% Dow -1.30%, Russell 2000 -1.90%, Nasdaq -2.78%1
- The All-Country World Index sank 2.75%.1
- S&P 500 sub-sectors saw a high degree of variance last week.
- Energy & Utilities led to the upside with gains of 9.22% & 4.90% respectively. 1
- Financials led to the downside with a loss of almost 5%.1
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 15% to end the week at 32. 1
- S&P 500 -1.27% Dow -1.30%, Russell 2000 -1.90%, Nasdaq -2.78%1
- US Treasury bond yields moved lower in risk-off trading last week.
- US 2yr -0.09% at 1.47%, 10yr -0.23% at 1.72%, 30yr -0.12% to 2.15%.1
- The spread between short maturities & longer ones narrowed notably.
- Commodities as an aggregate asset class soared higher last week.
- WTI Crude gained 25% to end the week @ $115/barrel. 1 (Not a typo…go fill up!)
- Gold gained 4.28%.1
- The US Dollar index rose 1.95%.1
- In our opinion, U.S. economic data was mixed last week.
- Non-Farm Payrolls in February came in better than expected at +678K jobs created. 1
- The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%.1
- Rising commodities prices are risking taking inflationary pressures even higher.
- An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) declined 6.14%.1
Conclusion
- US stock markets were down across the board as multiple risks emerged and/or increased leading to extreme risk-off trading within the broad investment landscape.
- As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensified and global gov’ts increased sanctions, global commodity prices went soaring.
- While Russia’s economy is relatively small, their exports per year of $400B (wheat & oil primarily) make these sanctions different to the global economy than past countries that have been heavily targeted. 1
- This puts further gasoline on the proverbial inflation fire that the Fed & European Central Bank have yet to address through monetary tightening.
- In the last 2 weeks, measures of investor sentiment have plummeted to levels not seen since March 2020 at the peak of the Covid pandemic market drawdown. 1
- As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensified and global gov’ts increased sanctions, global commodity prices went soaring.
- S&P 500 subsectors finished the week extremely mixed.
- Energy & Utilities led the way by a wide margin while Healthcare, Industrials, & Real Estate also produced positive returns.
- Financials led to the downside on the back of interest rates sinking lower.
- Tech & Consumer Discretionary sank over 2.5% as the 2nd worse performers. 1
- The US Treasury market saw bond yields plummet lower on the long end.
- While inflation expectations as measured by the US bond market over the next 5 years rose to the highest level since at least 2002, longer-term Treasury bond yields fell. 1
- Also, key benchmark yield curves contracted significantly, with the very important gap between 2 and 10yr Treasury yields narrowing to the least since March 2020. 1
- This spread is an often cited & watched gauge as measure of overall economic health.
- All eyes were on commodities last week as they skyrocketed higher on supply concerns.
- WTI Crude oil rose 25% to end at $115/barrel on concerns the US would restrict the purchase of Russian oil while OPEC+ decided to barely boost output and inventories remain very low1.
- Interesting to note that there have been 12 recessions since 1946 and 8 of them have followed major oil price shocks. 1
- A further 3 have occurred immediately following more modest, but still notable, oil price run-ups. 1
- According to Bloomberg Intelligence reports, just a $0.01 change in gas prices influences annual US consumer spending on fuel by about $1.1B. 1
- This would mean gas prices are levying an “energy tax” of near $100B based on their rise over the past 12 months and is poised to go even higher. 1
- The Chinese Communist Party was active last week as they once again put pressure on China’s technology companies as well as indicated more stimulus is on the horizon from the mainland. 1
- This has a much larger impact on emerging market equities than did the kicking out of Russia from major indices.
- China accounts for 30% of the most popular EM index while Russia is 1.5%.1
- This has a much larger impact on emerging market equities than did the kicking out of Russia from major indices.
- With all of this uncertainty around the globe, we feel fortunate to be carrying the large cash balances we are and continue to let our data centered process drive decisions for our clients.
Ryan A. Mumy, CFP®,
AIF® – Chief Investment Officer
Contact: 828/855-9400
info@CIASonline.com or rmumy@bloomberg.net
1 Source: Bloomberg – 3/4/2022
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