Another Strong Week for U.S. Equities

Market Down and Dirty

Last Week’s Economic/Market Summary

Data

  • U.S. equities were mostly higher last week as earnings season winds down.
    • S&P 500 +1.35% Dow +0.72% Russell 2000 -3.11%, Nasdaq +2.40% 
      • The All-Country World Index rose +0.53%.1
    • S&P 500 sub-sectors were mixed last week.
      • Technology, Communications, & Discretionary led to the upside. 1
      • Energy, Real Estate, Materials, & Utilities led to the downside. 1
    • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined an additional 5% to close at 14.16. 1
  • US Treasury bond yields were mixed last week.
    • US 2yr +0.21% at 5.04%, 10yr +0.04% to 4.61%, 30yr -0.04% to 4.73%.1
    • The market continues to digest large levels of US Treasury issuance. 1

  • Commodities as an aggregate asset class were mixed last week.
    • WTI Crude lost -3.94%.1
    • Gold declined -2.79%.1
    • The US Dollar index rose +0.74%.1

  • In our opinion, U.S. economic data continued to be mixed last week.
    • Consumer Sentiment & Future Expectations came in lower than expected. 1
    • Initial & Continuing claims edged higher. 1
    • Fed Chair Powell spoke and verbally committed to higher rates for longer. 1
  • An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) declined -0.76%.1

Conclusion

  • US Equities ended the week higher at face-value as the year-to-date winners kept going higher.
    • The tech-heavy Nasdaq led to the upside with gain of over 2%.1
    • The small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed dramatically with a 3% loss. 1
    • While the S&P 500 was positive 1.35% last week, the equal-weighted version was negative over the same period. 1
      • This reinforces that just a handful of companies continue to drive the cap-weighted S&P 500 index higher.
    • For reference: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, & Amazon currently make up 21% of the S&P 500 index. 1
      • These companies accounted for over 50% of the S&P 500’s gain last week. 1
  • S&P 500 subsectors were extremely mixed last week.
    • Technology led to the upside with a gain of over 4%.1
    • Energy led to the downside with a loss of 4%.1
      • We feel the market continues to price in slowing demand across the economy which is countering supply cuts by OPEC+.
  • The US Treasury saw less movement this week in yields following the massive moves last week.
    • Despite this, the bond market remains extremely volatile from a historical standpoint.
    • The Move index which tracks bond volatility has traded above 100 all year. 1
      • For comparison, it didn’t exceed 100 from 2011 – 2022. 1
    • We feel that if this volatility continues, it will negatively impact corporate America’s growth spending plans.
  • The US Dollar rebounded last week to finish up +0.74%.1
    • This was a headwind for Int’l equities last week as they dramatically underperformed domestic names.
      • Despite this, the greenback could be losing its upward momentum.
    • We feel this could become a tailwind for both Int’l equities and US companies that generate a large amount of their revenue from overseas.
    • A major determining factor will be if the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates or not.
      • If they are, the US Dollar should weaken…if they hike again, the USD could see even further strength.
  • Earnings season is about completed with 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported thus far.
    • While 81% of companies have reported better than expected earnings per share, just 61% of S&P 500 constituents have beaten their revenue targets. 1
    • The blended earnings growth rate is currently at +4.1%.1

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP®,

AIF® – Chief Investment Officer

Contact: 828/855-9400
info@CIASonline.com or rmumy@bloomberg.net 

 1 Source: Bloomberg – 11/10/2023 

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